Economic Observer Online
By Cheng Xiaohe (成晓河), Associate professor with Renmin University's School of International Studies
November 28, 2012
Translated by Dou Yiping and Laura Lin
Original article: [Chinese]

The Korean peninsula is destined to be a region that makes people anxious and of late it's been living up to that reputation.

Whether its rumors of quiet reforms behind the scenes, intrigue surrounding the reported naming of former army chief  Ri Yong-ho as a "counter-revolutionary" or the serious issue of whether North Korea is planning to launch a long-range missile, the region has once again been attracting a lot of attention.

On Nov 24, the South Korean daily JoongAng Ilbo revealed that the South Korean military had detected North Korea troops transporting rocket components from its Pyongyang arsenal to its rocket launch site in the Northwest. The components are similar to those used in a missile launch last April.

This is clearly a sign that North Korea may indeed launch another Long-Range Ballistic Missile.

On Nov 27, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency predicted that North Korea will launch a long-range missile in December or January. On the same day, Reuters noted that satellite images revealed a significant increase in activity at a North Korean missile launch site.

These media reports don't appear to be groundless. There are pressures weighing on North Korea that are persuading them that they should launch a missile.

Firstly, South Korea had planned to launch it's "Naro" missile on Nov 29 (this third attempt to launch the rocket was again pushed back due to technical problems), this planned launch placed pressure on North Korea.

There has been a missile race going on between the two neighboring states for many years, though both have failed to conduct a successful launch. If South Korea's "Naro" is succesful, North Korea will surely feel as though it is being left behind.

In addition, the North Koreans also find it unfair that the international community has criticized them for conducting missile tests under the pretext of launching satellites but South Korea is allowed to develop and test missiles without reproach.

Last month, when South Korea and America revised their Missile Agreement, Seoul was even able to extend the missile's range from 300 to 800 kilometers, no neighboring countries expressed any kind of reaction.

By preparing another test, the North Koreans are not only letting off some steam, they're also challenging what they see as the double standards of the international community.

In addition, South Korea's presidential election is in full swing. To North Korea, whether Park Geun-Hye, the conservative New National Party candidate, or Moon Jae-In, who represents the progressive forces, wins the election, will have unusual significance.
During the administration of Kim Dae-Jung and Roh Moo-Hyun, South Korea's two former presidents, relations between the two Koreas eased somewhat. Not only did the two countries' leaders meet, they also signed two historical documents, the June 15 South-North Joint Declaration and the October 4 Inter-Korea Summit Declaration. However, since Lee Myung-Bak came to office, inter-Korean relations are once again quite tense.

Though both the South Korean presidential candidates have promised to amend the current policy towards the DPRK, Pyongyang places no hope in Park Geun-Hye, who has been attacked repeatedly in the North Korean media.

There are limited means that Pyongyang can use to affect the South Korean election. Creating a certain tension by staging a test launch and encouraging public dissatisfaction with the ruling party is one of the few cards it holds.

Secondly, not just South Korea, but all countries involved in the Six-Party Talks (the two Koreas, US, China, Russia, Japan) have recently under gone or are about to undergo a change of leadership.

North Korea and the United States are a pair of quarrelsome lovers. Kim Jong-un may not like Obama much, but certainly he liked Romney even less. In its dealings with the Americans, the North has good memories of Bill Clinton's Democratic administration. Bill Clinton almost made it to be the first serving American president to visit the DPRK, whereas his Republican successor George W. Bush bluntly tagged North Korea as part of the "Axis of Evil."

However, since the premature end of North Korean's agreement to freeze its nuclear work, and its ballistic missile launch attempts, President Obama has been heavily criticized at home and his government decided to take a "strategic patience" approach as they know that time is on their side.

Yet since Obama's re-election, Pyongyang has been repeatedly trying to catch the U.S. President's attention.

An article in the Rodong Sinmun last weekend urged the United States to abandon its hostile policy towards North Korea. On the same day, another article from North Korea's Central News Agency even suggested that as long as "America boldly gives up its political hostility to the DPRK, the peninsula's nuclear issue could be resolved smoothly."  

And yet North Korea's calls have not found an echo in the United States.

At the just-concluded East Asia Summit, Obama did not even mention the country. This is why the firing of a rocket may be a lever to move forward the hesitant Pyongyang-Washington relationship.

Although North Korea does not lack motivation to launch a rocket, there are also many obstacles that will be difficult to get around.

The primary obstacle actually comes from China. North Korea's satellite launch last April damaged China-DPRK relations that had just started improving. Since 2009, China has been committed to the repair and strengthening of the two countries' relations. It has even caused some discord in China's rapport with South Korea.

Since North Korea announced its satellite launching program in April, China has tried to work behind the scenes to persuade North Korea to change its mind. Unfortunately, North Korea refused to back down and Beijing was finally forced to support the strongly-worded statement of the United Nations Security Council.

Since April, there has also been no talk of President Hu Jintao achieving his long-cherished wish of visiting North Korea and Kim Jong-un has not paid a visit to China.

If North Korea is determined to launch the rocket this time, China's new leaders will face a hard choice and it's possible that relations between the two countries will not improve.

South Korea is another barrier. North Korea's actions may prevent the new leaders of South Korea from adopting a more conciliatory approach towards the country and ratchet up tensions which have only just started to ease off a bit.

What North Korea should know is that to improve its relationship with the U.S., getting along South Korea, is essential.

It's extremely unlikely that North Korea will be able to improve its relationship with the U.S. if the North-South relationship is still tense.

Naturally, America is also a major obstacle. Since Obama won the election, he has been accelerating the implementation of America's strategic rebalancing toward Asia. His latest visit to Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia reflected the U.S. strategic emphasis on small and medium-sized countries in the region, and has highlighted America's attempt to strengthen relations with ASEAN countries.

While more occupied with events in Syria and in containing Iran's nuclear ambitions, the U.S. is likely to opt instead for an "ignoring and waiting" approach when it comes to North Korea.

If North Korea fires a rocket, it will probably force the United States to change its policy back to the old "containing  and waiting" approach, which is what North Korea is trying to avoid.

In conclusion, Pyongyang has once again attempted to "make ripples in the pond" with its plans for a new rocket launch.

The approach has both pros and cons but logic says it will do more harm than good.

But we'll just have to wait and see whether North Korea, a nation that's not always known for acting in accordance with common sense, will be as stubborn as last time.Will North Korea be prepared to go to the brink again, it's possible but not that likely.

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